Hurricane Dorian 2019 Versus Florence 2018 In Eastern NC Near Carteret County

Discussion on what the impacts of Hurricane Dorian 2019 will be versus Florence 2018 as it relates to Eastern NC and Carteret County impacts from wind, flooding, storm surge, and damage. Readers can use the comment section at the end of this article for discussions, and please consider sharing on social media sites like Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit so that others can join the conversation.

September 5, 2019 at 6 p.m. – This website will likely not be updated with new information due to electricity loss by the editor.

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Hurricane Dorian will strike between Morehead City and Cape Lookout between 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. on September 6, 2019 as a Category 1 storm with winds of between 85 and 95 mph winds.

The core of the storm will likely affect all of Carteret County NC with damaging winds, strong storm surge, heavy rains, downed trees, and electricity loss for 3-7 days.

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Emergency Services hotline at 252-726-7177 for pre-recorded, updated information on evacuations, shelters, and preparations.

Editor’s Notes On This Storm At The Very Bottom

Disaster recovery and relief information at the bottom of the article.

Current Information (September 5, 2019 5 p.m.): Category 2, sustained winds of 105 mph, moving Northeast at 10 mph, pressure of 960 mb. Carteret County Hurricane Dorian discussion: September 5: See editor’s notes below (urgent). (September 3) 11 p.m. The NHC has again shifted the cone to the left placing Dorian passing within 12 miles of Cape Lookout. September 3 at 2 p.m. the National Weather Service placed the local county under a hurricane watch and storm surge warning. The NHC has now removed all references to major hurricane and Dorian is now expected to be Category 2 or under overwhelmingly and significantly decreasing the intensity of when she arrives near Carteret County. 5 a.m. The dramatic reduction in winds is related to the eye wall still being over the Bahamas and the eye fragmented taking in dry air. 10 p.m. In the past few hours the models have swung back around favoring a more offshore approach to the county coast, we will continue to watch this over the next 24 hours. However, please watch the video below on why you should not alter planning, preparations, sheltering, evacuation around the models. (older update) As of September 2, 2019 at 5:00 p.m. EST, both the GFS and ECMWF (Euro) show a closer approach to the NC coast than the current National Hurricane Center projected path. We will continue to watch these computer models, and for any future adjustments to the official NHC projected path. Everyone in the Bogue Banks communities of Salter Path, Indian Beach, Pine Knoll Shores, Atlantic Beach, and Emerald Isle need to finalize their planning for evacuation from the island. Down east communities in Harkers Island, Cedar Island, Marshallberg, Atlantic, and others need to make similar preparations. (Continued below)

evacuation maps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOPykqystlI

Suggested Preparations For This Storm

Data in this article based on information on September 5, 2019 at 5 p.m. and data contained in this initial article will be updated as we get more information from the National Hurricane Center for effects in Eastern NC and the Carteret County communities of Morehead City, Atlantic Beach, Beaufort, and Emerald Isle.

For each section below, we will provide an update area to show what the current information shows versus what new emerging information shows.

Local Weather

What Will The Difference Be?


Hurricane Dorian is forecast to be a Category 2 storm if it approaches the NC coast traveling Northeast or even East Northeast. Hurricane Florence approached Carteret County traveling Northwest and was a Cat 1.

The differences here is that with Dorian 2019, all land will be on the left side of the storm which is considered the weakest. With Florence 2018, the county took the brunt of the right quadrant outer eye wall which is considered the strongest part of the storm.

Updates will be provided here as new information comes in.


Dorian will be moving much faster than Florence which actually stalled over the area. This means the area will feel impacts at a much shorter duration than the 2018 storm. There will be less flooding and prolonged raining.

Updates will be provided here as new information comes in.


Florence 2018 came within 40 miles of land before paralleling the coast and eventually hitting Wilmington. While the impact was overwhelmingly significant, Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, and Morehead City never felt the true impact of the inner eye wall. With Dorian 2019, as it stands now, we will be closer to the eye wall but on the left side of the storm.

Updates will be provided here as new information comes in.


Dorian will be affecting the county during a king tide meaning that storm surge and water levels COULD be much higher than we saw with Florence, but you also have to factor in that with Florence wind driven tides actually came over 2 cycles compared to what will only be one cycle with Dorian.

Updates to this section will be provided here as new information comes in.


Local Area Information

Updates To Storm Information And Differences

In this section, we will be providing hourly updates to official National Hurricane Center (NHC) information and data as they occur, along with links to computer model information and commentary. You are encouraged to refresh this page to see updates.

Citizens and visitors to the Carteret County NC communities of Emerald Isle, Atlantic Beach, Morehead City, Beaufort and areas down east near Harkers Island are encouraged to use the comment section below to have Hurricane Dorian discussions. Be sure to subscribe to comments to see replies and new comments.

As of September 5, 2019, Hurricane Dorian is a Category 2 storm packing winds of 105 mph and is forecast to track near the SC border and then parallel the NC coast near Wilmington, Jacksonville, Swansboro, Morehead City and Bogue Banks before exiting the Continental United States via the Outer Banks.

While several computer models were putting out emerging data showing Dorian not hitting land and curving out to sea near Cape Lookout as early as yesterday, the GFS and Euro are now showing a bit more closer approach to our county communities. This is the infamous pendulum swing that we see with models. As stated above, we will just have to keep watching these swings until the pendulum stops in the middle. That will tell us where landfall could be.

Additionally, given the slant of Coastal NC, any minor adjustments to Dorian’s path over the Atlantic basin could equate to 50 or 60 mile adjustments when nearing our county.

Please continue to make all major preparations and planning, take heed of any evacuation orders, and continue to monitor official information put out by local county emergency management officials and the NHC.

https://www.facebook.com/CCVProject/posts/598414307356804

 

Disaster Recovery And Relief

Using the comment form below, please send us any information on local organizations that are providing Carteret County disaster recovery and relief services immediately after the storm and we will add it to this section.

This information could include local businesses and organizations providing food, ice, supplies, or other services.

County commissioners will open a shelter at Newport Middle School on Wednesday, September 4, 2019 starting at 5 pm. This will be a pet friendly shelter in the county.

Editor’s Notes On Dorian

September 5, 2019: (urgent) The 11 p.m. advisory on Dorian revealed that this storm has regained Cat 3 status and the NHC has now moved the county over the direct eye wall path as a possible mid-level Cat 2. This would put Eastern Morehead City, Beaufort, and all areas Down East under the right upper quadrant. Again, while this will not be a duration event that Florence was, the winds of a sustained Cat 2 gusting to Cat 3 will be much more severe than Florence.

In having direct access to a meteorologist in the family, after 35 years of watching and studying these type storms, learning about their steering and what makes them thrive, I do think that Hurricane Dorian will be a significant storm. Here are my gut level feelings: 1) While we will not have the intense flooding that we saw with Florence, we will have higher more intense winds with this storm making landfall between Cape Lookout and Beaufort. This will give us eye wall conditions for 8 hours and there will be 100% electricity loss across the county for at least a week and a half. 2) There will likely be more significant damage to many structures than just roof damage as we saw with Florence because of the stronger winds. This will be more apparent in Down East communities, Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, Pine Knoll Shores and other waterfront areas.

We will continue to make Carteret County Hurricane Dorian updates from the official NHC advisories up until we lose Internet access and we continue to ask that you send us disaster and recovery information using the form below and on our social media pages on Facebook and Twitter.

When will power companies (Duke Energy) have electricity turned back on?

The good news about this 2019 storm is that it will be a fast moving system unlike the 2018 storm that lingered over the area for 3 days. Last year, linemen from Duke Energy and contractors could not even start work for 3 days after the storm passed. With this storm moving at a decent forward speed, power companies should be able to get to work rather quickly and have the electricity turned on much quicker to most of the county.

#CarteretStrong

 

Michael Sharp

Michael Sharp

Native of Carteret County NC, Father to Makayla and Savannah. You can add me on Facebook. Interest include web development, encryption, and other technologies.

One thought on “Hurricane Dorian 2019 Versus Florence 2018 In Eastern NC Near Carteret County

  • Avatar
    July 31, 2020 at 2:23 pm
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    Here we go again in 2020!

    Reply

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