Hurricane Dorian live feed updates for the Outer Banks coastal regions in 2019. This article will be updated every six hours with the latest information on the official track, forecast, intensity, and information from various computer models. Additionally, we will post official National Hurricane Center updates.
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Hurricane Dorian was named on August 28, 2019 in the Central Atlantic Ocean.
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September 5, 2019 at 6 p.m. – This website will likely not be updated with new information due to electricity loss by the editor.
Hurricane Dorian will strike between Morehead City and Cape Lookout between 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. on September 6, 2019 as a Category 1 storm with winds of between 85 and 95 mph winds.
The core of the storm will likely affect all of Carteret County NC with damaging winds, strong storm surge, heavy rains, downed trees, and electricity loss for 3-7 days.
September 5, 2019
5 p.m. – Cat 2, pressure 960 mb, winds 105 mph, moving NE now at 10 mph.
11 a.m. now Category 2, winds 110 mph, pressure 958 mb, moving NNE at 8 mph and should turn NE in the next few hours heading towards Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the Outer Banks.
5 a.m. Category 3, pressure 957 mb, moving North at 8 mph, winds 115 mph. Expecting the NNE to NE curve.
September 4, 2019
11 p.m. Back to Category 3 with a pressure of 955 mb, sustained winds of 115, moving North at 7 mph. The hurricane center also moved the cone a bit to the West now placing the entire eye wall over the Outer Banks and Pamlico Sound.
5 p.m. Category 2, winds 110 mph, pressure 961 mb, moving NNW at 8 mph.
11 a.m. – Category 2, pressure 964 mb, moving NNW at 9 mph, sustained winds of 105 mph. Poised for direct landfall on the southern Outer Banks.
5 a.m. Category 2, sustained winds of 105, pressure 963 mb, moving North Northwest at 8 mph.
September 3, 2019
11 p.m. Only changes now moving NNW.
5 p.m. No changes except a forward speed to 6 mph now and a pressure of 959 mb.
11 a.m. Category 2, sustained winds of 110 mph, 955 mb pressure, moving Northwest. The NHC has removed all references to major hurricane in the forecast indicating that the Outer Banks area will see a much less intensity storm from Dorian.
5 a.m. Category 3, winds 120 mph, pressure 950 mb, still stationary with it’s southern eye wall still over the Bahamas. In the latest imagery, the radar is completely breached and taking in dry air which could inhibit it’s full re-strengthening.
September 2, 2019
11 p.m. Category 3, pressure 946 mb, stationary, sustained winds of 130 mph.
5 p.m. Category 4, sustained winds 145 mph, stationary, pressure 940 mb.
11 a.m. Category 4, 155 mph winds, pressure 922 mb, movement to the West at 1 mph. Center of circulation is still over Grand Bahamas Island inhibiting the storm. Expected to move back out over open water in 3 hours. At that time, the wind field will expand, but the wind speeds will decrease some as it moves towards coastal SC. Forecast still for landfall around the Outer Banks.
5 a.m. Moving: 1 mph, Min pressure: 916 mb, Max sustained winds: 165 mph. The reduction in sustained winds is related to being over land in the Bahamas. The NHC and computer models still calling for a reduction in movement speed followed by a more North turn later today before hitting the peninsula, then heading in to the Atlantic Basin to parallel the East Coast along GA, SC, and the Outer Banks as a Category 1 or 2 storm.
September 1. 2019
11 p.m. Moving: W at 6 mph, Min pressure: 914 mb, Max sustained: 180 mph. Still looking at the Outer Banks for potential landfall after leaving the Bahamas.
5 p.m. Only change is that this system slowed down to 5 miles per hour movement.
3 p.m. NHC releases special advisory: 185 mph winds now, 910 mb pressure, West movement at 7 mph.
11 a.m. Update now a Category 5 with sustained winds of 180 mph, moving West at 7 mph and a central pressure of 913 mb. Now hitting the Abaco islands.
10 a.m. The National Hurricane Center just released a special advisory saying Dorian is now a Category 5 with 175 mph winds and a pressure of 922 mb.
8 a.m. – Now a Category 5 with sustained winds of 160 mph.
5 a.m. – Pressure now down to 934 mb, still the same category and sustained winds. The NHC does now have this storm leaving the Bahamas and it missing FL and the East Coast coming only about 50 miles from hitting any land masses after the Bahamas.
August 31, 2019
11 p.m. – The only changes in this advisory different than 5 pm is a 4 mb drop in pressure to 940 mb.
5 p.m. No changes to intensity or sustained winds, but the latest 5 day cone does suggest this storm may miss the U.S. mainland and just skirt the Outer Banks.
11 a.m. – Category 4, sustained winds of 150 mph, major new change to track now directly aimed at Wilmington NC, Swansboro and Carteret County.
8:00 a.m. updates: NHC now says Cat 4 145 mph sustained winds (Category 4).
The 00Z ECMWF is showing an identical track as the 06Z GFS except it has the hurricane much stronger in size and a significantly faster movement to the Northeast. The next Euro model will be out at 12Z (noon).
The 06Z GFS now focusing on direct hit or near miss to Charleston SC or Myrtle Beach area, then paralleling the Eastern NC coast around Wilmington, Jacksonville, Morehead City, Atlantic Beach area of the Outer Banks.
5 a.m. – Location: 25.8°N 72.6°W, Moving: WNW at 12 mph, Min pressure: 948 mb, Max sustained: 140 mph
Overwhelmingly significant track change by the NHC focusing now on landfall near the Georgia and South Carolina border, but not as a Category 4 hurricane. GFS and Euro ensembles also support this theory.
August 30, 2019
11 p.m. – Location: 25.5°N 71.4°W, Moving: WNW at 10 mph, Min pressure: 948 mb, Max sustained: 140 mph
8:30 p.m. NHC says Dorian is a 131 mph Cat 4.
8 p.m. – Officially upgraded maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, still a Cat 3. Cat 4 is 131 mph winds.
The 18Z GFS – Continues to show a touch and go landfall on FL, then paralleling the coast and exiting the Continental US near Carteret County NC, Cape Lookout, Ocracoke Island, and Cape Hatteras on the Outer Banks.
5 p.m. – Location: 25.0°N 70.7°W, Moving: WNW at 9 mph, Min pressure: 970 mb, Max sustained: 115 mph. (Category 3)
Very significant update. Landfall has been shifted about 70 miles North. The cone has shifted to the East. Most of SC is now in the cone. Please continue to watch this trend. It is now looking like Dorian will indeed re-enter the Atlantic Ocean somewhere around Jacksonville FL. From there, only the computer models can tell us if the core of the storm will stay over water or land as it travels coastal NC, GA, and SC.
The 12Z Euro (ECMWF) is now showing this storm missing Florida and curving up and hitting coastal NC. While this is not a forecast and just one model run, we do have a 2 day trend now showing a definite North then Northeast turn. If this trend continues then it will be significant.
2 p.m. – Dorian is now a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph.
The 12Z GFS still showing Cat 1 traveling up East Coast along coastal NC, SC, and GA. At the 114 hour in this model it shows a strong Cat 1 sitting over Eastern NC near Carteret County. However, keep in mind this is a model run, not a forecast.
11 a.m. updates: Location: 24.5°N 69.8°W, Moving: NW at 10 mph, Min pressure: 972 mb, Max sustained: 110 mph. (Cat 2)
In this Hurricane Dorian update, readers should notice the significant turn to the right in the 5 day cone. All computer models are picking up on a low pressure system across the Great Lakes region wanting to pick this storm up and is now providing guidance and direction for it to turn North, then NNE or maybe even NE. How quick this happens will determine if this system tracks back in to the Atlantic Ocean or tracks up the East Coast over land. The key here is to watch the GFS and Euro models for a trend. In one hour we will have both models available. People in Central and Eastern NC, SC, and GA should seriously prepare for this storm.
The 06Z GFS (above) and 00Z Euro (below) are continuing the trend of after landfall Hurricane Dorian feeling another low pressure system over the great lakes and will want to follow it around the boundary of a large high pressure system located over the North Atlantic. The GFS now shows this tropical system making it to the Western coast of Florida, then turning NE back over the Atlantic well offshore of the East Coast. The Euro, notes that this system will travel the peninsula mid-way then follow the coast. Again, any effects for Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina after landfall will depend on when this turn to the North happens. We will continue to watch the models along with NHC official track to flush out what we think will happen.
5 a.m. – Location: 23.8°N 69.1°W, Moving: NW at 12 mph, Min pressure: 979 mb, Max sustained: 105 mph.
August 29, 2019
11 p.m. – Location: 23.3°N 68.4°W, Moving: NW at 12 mph, Min pressure: 977 mb, Max sustained: 105 mph (Category 2).
6:40 p.m. – 18Z GFS computer run
5 p.m. update: Location: 22.5°N 67.7°W, Moving: NW at 13 mph, Min pressure: 986 mb, Max sustained winds: 85 mph
Discussion: You will notice in the 5 p.m. update there is a considerable turn at the end of the 5 day cone. This shows that the NHC and models are sensing that eventual North then NNE turn. When that happens is pivotal for the East Coast as it means Dorian could travel up the coast inland or over water.
3:43 p.m. – Added Eastern NC (Carteret County) information to the bottom of this article.
Next updates: NHC at 5 p.m. EST, Euro at 00Z EST (midnight), and GFS at 18Z EST (6 p.m.)
The 12Z Euro (ECMWF) shows almost an identical track as the 12Z GFS except more inland over the East Coast through Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
The National Hurricane Center is now OFFICIALLY calling for Dorian to be a Category 4 storm at landfall.
The 12Z GFS is now available showing a Category 4 (Cat 4) storm hitting near Melbourne FL, traveling up the peninsula, in to Georgia and SC, exiting back in to water, then sitting over the Outer Banks of NC regaining Cat 1 strength for 2 days.
11 a.m updates: Location: 21.4°N 67.2°W, Moving: NW at 13 mph, Min pressure: 986 mb, Max sustained: 85 mph. No changes in the forecast track.
There is data emerging from computer models that suggest Dorian could be a Category 4 or Category 5 storm close to landfall.
The 06Z GFS is also calling for a direct hit but no crossover, up the middle of the state and then hanging out in Georgia. Not a forecast, just the latest model run.
5 a.m. – Location: 20.5°N 66.6°W, Moving: NW at 13 mph, Min pressure: 991 mb, Max sustained: 85 mph.
The 00Z Euro model is once again back to a slight landfall on the peninsula and then a Northeast curve up the East Coast over land. This of course is just one model run and certainly not a forecast.
No major changes in track. I do want you to look at the graphic below and note the see saw movement as it nears the peninsula. For this track to hold true, this system is going to have to make those movements exactly when the NHC says they will and that is unlikely. This is why everyone in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and even South Carolina need to keep monitoring Dorian.
August 28, 2019
11 p.m: Location: 19.7°N 66.0°W, Moving: NW at 13 mph, Min pressure: 986 mb, Max sustained: 85 mph.
7 p.m. update: The 18Z GFS continues to show a peninsula direct hit but in this run this storm does not cross over the state and stalls over Northern FL and Georgia.
5 p.m. update: Location: 18.8°N 65.5°W, Moving: NW at 14 mph, Min pressure: 997 mb, Max sustained: 80 mph
Both the 12Z GFS and Euro computer models are showing a direct hit on the peninsula now crossing over in to the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is the northernmost model with a direct hit near Daytona Beach, then crossing over in to the Gulf and then inland on the panhandle. The Euro is the southernmost model with a direct hit near West Palm Beach, crossing in to the Gulf, then inland near the Florida / Alabama border. The Euro will run again at 12 a.m. EST and the GFS at 6 p.m. EST.
3:00 p.m. update: The 12Z Euro (ECMWF) model is complete showing Dorian crossing the southern tip of FL, in to the Gulf of Mexico, going inland along the panhandle, then curving back in to GA. The GFS continues to show a East Coast turn. The next GFS is at 6 p.m. EST.
2:00 pm Advisory: Dorian officially became a hurricane reaching sustained winds of 75 mph. No change in official track but the National Hurricane Center is now saying a major hurricane striking the middle of FL. This will mean Category 3 or higher. Next update 5 p.m.
It will be interesting to watch over the next 36 hours whether the computer models trend more North in to the FL, GA, SC, or NC states and the NHC follows that guidance, or if the models come back South along with the NHC consensus. Next update is 5 pm, the next GFS model run is at 6 pm EST and the next Euro model run is at midnight EST. We will post both here after they run.
11 am update: Max sustained winds: 70 mph, Min pressure: 999 mb, Moving: NW at 13 mph, Location: 17.5°N 64.5°W.
Latest Computer Models: GFS – This is by no means a forecast for what will be Hurricane Dorian, but it does clearly show the North trend represented by the last few NHC updates. The latest GFS model shows Dorian skirting the East Coast either just after hitting FL, or just before and then skirting the SC and NC coast. The EURO shows a direct hit on Florida, but then an immediate backtrack over the state and up the East Coast inland still as a formidable storm. We will have to watch to see if these models hold true over the next 24 to 36 hours. However, on the latest NHC cone, there is a very slight shift South. But, note that the NHC now has what will be Hurricane Dorian as a major Category 3 storm in the Bahamas. What all this means is that the intensity of this tropical system is starting to play as as a significant hurricane with the forecast track still to be determined.
5 am update: Max sustained winds: 60 mph, Min pressure: 1003 mb, Moving: NW at 13 mph, Location: 16.8°N 63.9°W.
New update calls for hurricane status at 2 am Friday, and the cone has pushed slightly further North again. The 5 day cone is now between North of Miami FL to Charleston SC.
There is considerable data to suggest that Dorian could become a hurricane much sooner than 2 am Friday.
August 27, 2019:
11 pm update: Max sustained: 50 mph, Min pressure: 1006 mb, Moving: NW at 13 mph, Location: 16.0°N 63.0°W.
Significant changes to this update. The NHC notes that on Friday at 8 pm, we will see this storm become Hurricane Dorian and there will be 48 hours still before landfall. The official track was bumped North a bit along the Eastern FL peninsula.
Both the global computer models and the National Hurricane Center are picking up on this system entering an environment that has less shear, moist air, and very high water temperatures (SSTs) which should allow for this system to strengthen considerably in the 48 between becoming a hurricane and making landfall. The bump more North along FL should not make people in the Gulf of Mexico states breath a sigh of relief. Also, the new track does put all of Georgia (GA) to the South Carolina (SC) line in the cone of uncertainty. Thus, we recommend everyone in Gulf states, FL, and places along the East Coast like Georgia and South Carolina to watch Dorian closely over the next 48 hours.
5 pm update: The only change from the 11 am advisory is that the NHC is now calling for a 2 pm landfall in Florida instead of 8 am. No changes in intensity or track.
Location: 15.3°N 62.5°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
What we are learning from this tropical cyclone: Despite a good core circulation and very warm sea surface temperatures, storms such as Dorian have a very hard time growing in size, building convection around it’s core, and strengthening when there is the presence of dry air and wind shear in the environment.
As of the latest 11 a.m. (EST) advisory on August 27, 2019, this storm’s location is at 14.2°N 61.8°W, with a Min pressure: 1005 mb, moving WNW at 13 mph. Current sustained winds are at 50 mph. The National Hurricane Center 3 day cone puts this storm nearing the Bahamas on Friday, August 30 and the 5 day cone of uncertainty puts the storm hitting Florida near Melbourne on Sunday, September 1, 2019. However, it should be noted that the 5 day cone is historically inaccurate with a tropical system this far out, so significant changes to this track is expected. Additionally, the National Hurricane Center has this storm on the threshold of becoming a hurricane as it nears FL, so it is very possible that this system reaches hurricane status just before landfall IF the current track holds true. At this point, all interests along the US Gulf Coast, Florida, and Eastern US should monitor this storm.
Forecast Discussion: Currently, Tropical Storm Dorian is being inhibited by high wind shear and very dry air over the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. If this persist over the next 4-5 days, it is possible that this storm will stay at it’s current designation, or even be reduced to a depression. If the wind shear and dry air relents, then it is possible the storm will grow in size and intensity, possibly to hurricane status. Lastly, it is impossible for anyone to say that this storm will make landfall along states in the Gulf of Mexico, along the FL coast, East Coast of the United States, dissipate, or curve out in to the Atlantic Ocean.
Saffir-Simpson Scale – Winds
Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph | Category 1: 74-95 mph | Category 2: 96-110 mph | Category 3: 111-130 mph | Category 4: 131-155 mph | Category 5: 156 or higher.
Category 3 is the threshold for a major hurricane capable of producing extensive and catastrophic damage.
Shift Focusing On Eastern NC Near Carteret County, Cape Lookout, And The Outer Banks
August 30 2019 6:42 p.m. EST – For the past two days both the GFS and Euro show a near miss or touch and go on Eastern FL, then directly affecting Eastern NC including Carteret County, Cape Lookout, Ocracoke Island, Cape Hatteras, and other areas along the Outer Banks. It appears this trend is being picked up by the NHC and areas such as Jacksonville, Swansboro, Wilmington, Morehead City, Atlantic Beach, and Emerald Isle need to plan for the possibility of a Category 2 storm near the coast.
3:43 p.m. August 29 – The latest couple of model runs are showing a skirt up the coast for Dorian after landfall. The GFS has the storm entering the ocean from SC and then directly over Eastern NC (Carteret County specifically) for three days possibly as a Cat 1 storm. The Euro has a more inland approach. Either way Eastern NC will see considerable weather from this storm depending on when the Northeast turn happens before or after landfall.
Will Dorian affect the Carteret County NC communities of Morehead City, Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, and Beaufort? The current forecast track is for this storm to hit FL, then shortly after while over land, turn Northeast. That could bring Eastern NC and Carteret County some weather days after initial landfall. However, this storm will greatly increase rip current risk along Carteret County beaches. As we get more information, this section will be updated for folks in Morehead City, Atlantic Beach, and Emerald Isle.